Slight optimism ahead of Core PCE, GBP / CHF back in range

Asian indices:

  • Australia’s ASX 200 index rose 47.1 points (0.65%) and is currently trading at 7,322.40
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 45.23 points (0.16%) and is currently trading at 28,920.12
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 314.6 points (1.09%) and is currently trading at 29,197.06

UK and Europe:

  • UK FTSE 100 futures are currently up 10.5 points (0.15%), the spot market is currently valued at 7,120.47.
  • Euro STOXX 50 futures are currently up 11 points (0.27%), the spot market is currently estimated at 4,133.43.
  • German DAX futures are currently up 37 points (0.24%), the spot market is currently expected to open at 15,626.23

US Futures:

  • DJI Futures are currently up 322.58 points (0.95%)
  • S&P 500 futures are currently up 7.75 points (0.05%)
  • Nasdaq 100 futures are currently up 5.75 points (0.14%)

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Index futures rise

Asian stocks rose overnight, mainly on the news of a $ 1.2 trillion infrastructure bill announced by Joe Biden towards the end of the US session. Index futures are skyrocketing and suggest a slightly larger opening for the spot markets today. the S&P 500 The E-mini contract is drifting higher inside a narrow bullish channel on its hourly chart, and is close to probing yesterday’s record.

the FTSE failed to convincingly break below Wednesday’s bearish hammer to confirm the short-term reversal pattern. Given that he is now well above his weekly pivot and 20 day EMA (and has formed a bullish swallow candle), then momentum could favor the bulls ahead of this session. 7110.50 was yesterday’s POC (checkpoint – most actively negotiated price) and can act as a magnet and / or provide support. A break above 7130 assumes a bullish continuation.

FTSE 350: Internal market

FTSE 350: 4,068.46 (0.51%) June 24, 2021

  • 139 (39.60%) shares rose and 202 (57.55%) fell
  • 17 stocks hit a new 52 week high, 4 fell to new lows
  • 83.76% of stocks closed above their 200 day average
  • 51.57% of stocks closed above their 50-day average
  • 17.95% of stocks closed above their 20 day average


  • + 4.94% – Chrysalis Investments Ltd (CHRY.L)
  • + 4.69% – Kainos Group PLC (KNOS.L)
  • + 3.72% – Flutter Entertainment PLC (FLTRF.I)


  • -9.78% – John Wood Group PLC (WG.L)
  • -7.83% – Airtel Africa PLC (AAF.L)
  • -6.23% – LXi REIT SA (LXIL.L)

Forex: The strongest NZD and AUD majors this week (so far)

the dollar was slightly weaker overnight, down 0.3% and 0.15% against the NZD and AUD, which are the strongest currencies thanks to the rise in infrastructure bill stocks (the NZD and the AUD are also the strongest currencies this week so far).

USD / JPY meanders around 111 and today’s Core PCE impression is likely to dictate which side of that key level it closes on this week. As the daily trend remains positively bullish, we might need to see a strong sense of inflation to see that it is comfortably higher today. Any sign of mediocrity is likely to push this pair down from current levels.

USD / CHF Very closely tracks the US Dollar Index (DXY) and is just as important to watch alongside the USD / JPY, ahead of today’s inflation data.

Watch today’s video: USD / CHF soars past CPI, Nasdaq warns of exhaustion

the Pound sterling may have been firm before yesterday’s BOE meeting, but it certainly wasn’t after. As we noted in yesterday’s report, GBP / CHF was out of his 9 week range, but yesterday’s bearish engulfing candle saw him close tightly under him. As prices tried to recover overnight, our bias remains bearish in the short term.

The hourly chart shows a bearish breakout of a bullish channel before falling to the 100 bar EMA, which now serves as support. In fact, it has almost formed a double dip at this level of dynamic support so we are on our guard for a bullish peak after the UK opens. Still, given the sharp change in momentum to yesterday’s high yesterday, we see any minor rally as a potential opportunity to fade away at a higher (more favorable) price, assuming prices continue to test at again yesterday’s low and to cross it of course. Alternatively, bears might wait for a breakout of yesterday’s low as this also clears the 100 dar EMA.

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Merchandise :

Gold and silver remain in tight ranges ahead of today’s CPI report ahead of their lows. The analysis for both is quite similar, but you can check out yesterday’s video for the key levels on cash.

Copper Futures are just below the 4.434 high, and a strong sense of inflation could push prices higher under reflation trade. 4.5350 is the next major resistance level for bulls and bears defending.

Go further…. soy Futures appear to be trying to form a base above 1300. They have fallen -22.7% from the May high and spent a day just below the February low, before printing a two bar bullish reversal pattern on the daily chart. Since then, a pullback has respected 1300 and printed a bullish hammer, and a break above 1380 suggests a deeper countertrend correction.

Next (hours in BST)

You can see all the events scheduled for today using our economic calendar, and keep up to date with latest market news and analysis here.

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